Hitting Machine

On Thursday, Baseball America released its Mets' top 10 prospect list, and here it is:

1. Lastings Milledge, of
2. Yusmeiro Petit, rhp
3. Gaby Hernandez, rhp
4. Ian Bladergroen, 1b
5. Ambiorix Concepcion, of
6. Alay Soler, rhp
7. Shawn Bowman, 3b
8. Victor Diaz, of
9. Jesus Flores, c
10. Matt Lindstrom, rhp

As most of you know, the Mets' system took a big hit in the last couple of years with both promotions [David Wright and Jose Reyes] and asinine trades [Jason Bay, Scott Kazmir, Justin Huber, and Matt Peterson] so its no surprise this list looks less than thrilling. With most propects playing below AA, the list reflects the fact that "the Mets’ future is now playing elsewhere and the present doesn’t look too appealing." Sadly, thats nothing but the truth. Either way, these lists are interesting because they provide with great topics. The most surprising thing on the list to me was Victor Diaz's low ranking and I guess it provides a good introduction for the number three prospect in my list.

3. Victor Diaz

Acquired in the Jeromy Burnitz trade, Victor Diaz came with the reputation of being a good hitter since the day he was born. Selected as a "draft and follow" in 37th round of the 2000 draft by the Dodgers, he has done nothing to dispell that notion as he has hit for a high average in all but one of his minor league stints [a 150 AB trial as a 20 year old in one if not the toughest hitter's league in the minor league- the Southern League].

Age 19 354/403/533 16/23 bb/so 27 XBHs 195 ABs
Age 20 350/412/521 27/69 bb/so 38 XBHs 349 ABs
Age 20 211/259/336 07/42 bb/so 11 XBHs 152 ABs
Age 21 291/358/462 27/60 bb/so 32 XHBs 316 ABs
Age 21 354/386/520 08/32 bb/so 17 XHBs 175 ABs
Age 22 291/333/491 33/133 bb/so 56 XBHs 528 ABs

With batting averages that were north of 350, it was no surprise Diaz has had his share of batting titles. He won one while making his professional debut in the Gulf Coast League, and was leading the South Atlantic League in the same category before being promoted in 2002. As a doubles hitter who hit line drives into the gaps, there was some question as to whether he'd ever develop consistent 20 HR power. Diaz erased those doubts by posting a 27 HR campaign this year between Norfolk and the major leagues. Obviously, if you are being traded for Jeromy Burnitz, that means not everything is perfect with you. With Diaz, that problem is two-fold: plate discipline and lack of postion.

Weakness: Diaz will never be a selective hitter. His increased power came with a corresponding jump in strikeouts. He doesn't run well and that shows in the outfield, where he makes the routine plays but little more. Conditioning never has been his forte.

Drafted as a second-baseman, the Mets moved Diaz to the OF because they figured his defense in the OF would be less of a problem. The problem with doing that was that they effectively reduced his value by moving him to a less demanding position. As a second-baseman, even with terrible defense, Diaz projected to be an elite secondbaseman in the Jeff Kent-mold. As an OFer, he projects to be average and he still brings bad defense to the table. With that being said, thats no reason to rank him below Ambriox Concepcion on a prospect list. J.J. Cooper of Baseball America thinks differently, and gives us his reason for such ranking on his Met prospect chat:

Q: Ricardo from Los Angeles asks:
Why is Concepcion ranked above Diaz?

A: J.J. Cooper: Diaz has produced more than Concepcion, obviously. But I put Concepcion about Diaz because, as I see it, Concepcion's ceiling is higher. We're talking about the difference between an athletic corner outfielder (who can handle center field) with a potentially strong bat, and a poor defensive left fielder who still has questions about if there really is a position for him. The questions about Diaz' defense mean that he has to really produce with the bat to start at the major league level, and with his free-swinging ways, he'll have to show major power production to make up for what projects to be a .330-.340 OBP. Concepcion also has some questions, but his ability to be a solid defensive outfielder with some more versatility gives him a little more leeway.

Certainly defense has its value, but honestly, I don't see any reason to say Ambiorix Concepcion is in any way better than Diaz at this point. Nevermind the fact that Diaz is in AAA and has proven he can hit in difficult hitting environments while Concepcion has yet to play in A ball. Nevermind that Concepcion's walk ratio wasn't any better than Diaz's last year. This whole discussion can be put to bed with one single sentence: Diaz's OPS in AAA was higher than Concepcion's OPS in Rookie Ball. Think about that for a minute. Still not convinced, well okay:

Diaz, Victor
SAL [A-]
Age 20,
350/412/521 27/69 bb/so 38 XBHs 349 ABs

Concepcion, Ambiorix
GCL, [R]
Age 20
305/338/475 13/27 bb/so 25 XBHs 259 ABs

So at the same age, Diaz had the edge in average, plate discipline, and power while also playing against tougher competion. When confronted with these stats, I don't see how anyone can think Concepcion at this moment is a better prospect than Victor Diaz. Maybe he'll be next year with a good showing in an actual full-season league, but not right now. Not when compared to a guy who has 310/358/486 minor league career line in over 1000 ABs. Not when compared to the guy who should be the Mets' opening day RFer next year.