The Hot Corner

Just a few months ago, the Mets had one of the best farm systems in baseball. However, the asinine trades of the July deadline combined with the promotion of David Wright, hit the farm system hard. Although there are few bonafide blue chip prospects left, the Mets do have some interesting prospects in the low minors. So without further ado, here are, in my opinion, the five best prospects in the system:

5. Shawn Bowman

For 42 years, the Mets' search for a thirdbaseman had been nothing short of puzzling and frustating. After going over 128 third-sackers without much success, the Mets finally found an answer for their hot-corner woes in phenom David Wright. Although not as hyped as Wright, the Mets do have some interesting prospects down in the minors in Aarom Baldiris. Shawn Bowman and recently drafted Nick Evans. Of the three, Bowman probably has the most potential, and that is why he comes in at number five in the list.

The Mets signed Shawn Bowman after drafting him in the 12th round of the 2002 draft from high school in Canada. Originally drafted as a shorstop, he's made a quick and seemless transition to third base impressing scouts and fans alike. According to a scouting report in NYFO's website:

"Hands down Bowman is the best defensive third base prospect I can ever remember seeing", says one NL scout. "In fact, if he continues to better himself at the plate, he's got the defensive skills to move David Wright over to first base, that's how good that kid is. He looks like Brooks Robinson."

No, the Mets are not moving Wright out of third base. But the fact that someone, anyone thinks Bowman could potentially be able to move "the franchise" to 1b speaks volumes of the defensive prowness Shawn Bowman posseses. The hot corner has typically been a source of great offensive production over the years, so if Bowman has any chance of displacing Wright, he'll have to do a little more than play defense.

Age 18 121/216/152 1/13 bb/so 0 HRs 33 ABs [R]
Age 18 203/260/268 10/49 bb/so 0 HRs 138 ABs [R]
Age 19 258/338/449 39/121 bb/so 19 HRs 396 ABs [A=]

Signed in late August of 2002, Bowman had to wait a year to make his professional debut in Kingsport last year. Although he was quick to adapt to his new position, he struggled mightly at the plate failing to hit for power or average. In 2004, after correcting some mechanical flaws, Bowman was promoted to the Capital City Bombers, the Mets low A ball affiliate. There, he finally showed tremendous power from day one. Bowman, one of the youngest players in the league, hit 19 HRs on his way to a breakthrough season and posted a better OPS than David Wright did at the same age and league:

Bowman, Shawn. Age 19 [A-]
258/338/449 19 HRs 37 XBHs 39/121 bb/so 396 ABs

Wright, David. Age 19 [A-]
266/367/401 11 HRs 43 XBHs 76/114 bb/so 496 ABs

When evaluating prospects, aside from age and league, two things come into my mind: Control of the Strike Zone, and Power. These two skills tend to be the best indicators of whether or not a players' minor league statistics will translate to big-league success.

The most important quality in any player is Plate Discipline. It can break or make a prospect. Although there are some exceptions, the reluctance to take walks will usually stall player's development at higher levels as pitchers will usually use a hitters' aggressiveness against him. Generally it is believed that if a player walks in 10% of his at-bats, he has adaquate plate discipline. Here's how both Bowman and Wright did based on this rule of thumb:

Bowman 0.098 BB/AB
Wright 0.153 BB/AB

Advantage Wright.

The next quality a prospect must possess to be considered an "elite" prospect is Power. Given that many prospects initially possess only gap power and develop HR power as they mature , its usually not a good idea to focus solely on home run total or slugging percentage, especially in the low minors. For that reason, some people use XBH% to determine which player has the better power.

Bowman 0.363 XBH%
Wright 0.326 XBH%

Advantage Bowman.

Though he hit for more power, Bowman's season wasn't as good David Wright's. Superior plate discipline gives David the edge here, but by no means does it diminish the former's season. Although strikeouts are a concern [he struck out in almost a 1/3 of his ABs], his excellent defense, and tremendous power potential combined with his young age make Shawn Bowman one of the most intriguing prospects in all of baseball. If he is able to cut his strikeouts and walk just a tad more, there is no telling where he'll end up. Who knows? Maybe even playing third base for the New York Mets.